000 AXNT20 KNHC 140524 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS CENTERED NEAR 14.2N 39.3W MOVING W AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WWD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY EXPECTED. ADVISORIES ARE NO LONGER BEING ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N24W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 25W-28W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N72W TO 4N69W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT CURRENTLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE WRN BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT DATA FROM 2334 UTC INDICATES LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING AND AN INVERTED-V STRUCTURE IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN. THIS WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE DEEP MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 68W-70W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-23N BETWEEN 68W-72W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 79W-82W. LARGER CONVECTIVE BURSTS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IN THE E PACIFIC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N16W 12N27W 13N36W 10N48W 11N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 25W-29W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 34W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0300 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS N FLORIDA AND INTO THE E GULF FROM 29N81W TO 26N86W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS EXTENDING INTO THE NE GULF TO 28N85W AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WRN ATLC ARE SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR ERN GULF AND FLORIDA N OF 25N E OF 84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE FAR NW GULF OF MEXICO N OF 28N W OF 91W. THIS ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...AS OF 0300 UTC. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS CENTERED OVER TEXAS NEAR 31N102W. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...AND THE N PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE TO REACH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND SE WATERS LATER TODAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE AFFECTING THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER GUATEMALA NEAR 17N90W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS S OF E CUBA NEAR 20N76W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS W OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER INHIBITING CONVECTION IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N62W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW S OF CUBA AND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AS THE TROPICAL WAVE TREKS WWD. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE FAR WRN ATLC NW OF A LINE FROM 24N80W TO 31N73W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS N FLORIDA TO NEAR 29N81W INTO THE ATLC TO NEAR 31N79W...AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 36N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO N OF THE ERN BAHAMAS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 71W-76W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER E CUBA NEAR 20N76W AND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH NEAR 36N64W. THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER HISPANIOLA IS ALSO SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 23N BETWEEN 68W-72W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 53W-56W ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH NEAR 36N64W AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 27N45W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLC...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 36N31W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 21N28W DOMINATES THE OVER THE ERN ATLC ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. $$ WALTON