000 AXNT20 KNHC 131751 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS CENTERED NEAR 14.0N 37.6W OR ABOUT 885 MILES...1425 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 13/1500 UTC MOVING W AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WWD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A GRADUAL BEND TO THE WNW AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-15N BETWEEN 38W-39W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 FOR MORE DETAILS. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W S OF 22N NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWED A WELL DEFINED LOW CENTER ON THE WAVE AXIS AT 12N22W. A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE IS ALSO NOTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. PATCHES OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 17W-30W. THERE IS A 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HRS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 20-25 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN INVERTED-V STRUCTURE IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A DEEP MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF HISPANIOLA FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 68W-72W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 63W-66W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT. CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS INHIBITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FURTHER S HOWEVER OVER THE E PACIFIC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N17W 11N26W 14N36W 9N46W 12N62W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION THAT WAS MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES AND TROPICAL WAVE SECTIONS...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 30W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF FROM N FLORIDA AT 31N83W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AT 27N90W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 82W-87W. 15 MINUTE LIGHTNING DATA SHOWS FREQUENT LIGHTNING S OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE N GULF N OF 24N. OUTSIDE AREAS OF CONVECTION...SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHT TO VARIABLE ACROSS THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF N OF 23N. AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE SE GULF CENTERED NEAR 24N84W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER S MEXICO CENTERED AT 18N104W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION AND SHOWERS OVER THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE AFFECTING THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A 1008 MB LOW IS OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 82W-85W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER GUATEMALA NEAR 17N90W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER HAITI NEAR 20N73W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-80W. EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N60W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO 27N75W. A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES AT 39N27W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N45W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 24N63W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N45W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 21N22W. EXPECT THE SPECIAL FEATURES TO BE THE DOMINATE FEATURES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. $$ FORMOSA