000 AXNT20 KNHC 121055 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS CENTERED NEAR 14.6N 32.4W OR ABOUT 535 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS 12/0900 UTC MOVING W AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTION REMAINS TO THE W OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 33W-36W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS LOCATED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE THAT ENCOMPASSES THIS WAVE AND THE WAVE TO THE W IN THE E CARIBBEAN AS OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-17N. TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM ALONG 65W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE IS LOCATED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE THAT ENCOMPASSES THIS WAVE AND THE WAVE TO THE W IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC AS OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE ELY TRADES AS WELL AS DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...THUS THE WAVE AXIS IS BASED ON CONTINUITY AND IS LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OR CONVECTION. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 11N21W 12N27W...THEN 13N37W 11N48W 14N55W 12N62W THEN OVER NE VENEZUELA TO OVER COLOMBIA AND E PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. JUST OF THE COAST OF W AFRICA IS BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG TO STRONG CONVECTION THAT COVERS THE AREA FROM 7N-19N BETWEEN 18W-23W...WHICH COULD POSSIBLY BE THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 26W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS EXTENDING NE ACROSS S MEXICO AND THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE TO OVER THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA. MOIST UNSTABLE AIR ALSO DOMINATES THE GULF GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE NE GULF N OF 26N E OF 93W TO JUST INLAND OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. A SEA BREEZE INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE GEORGIA ACROSS NE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO 28N85W ENHANCING THE ABOVE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 22N90W TO 18N93W GENERATING SIMILAR ACTIVITY S OF 20N BETWEEN 93W-96W. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 28N87W. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR 16N81W. MOIST SLY UPPER FLOW COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 19N W OF 85W AND WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE AREA N OF 16N W OF 72W. VERY DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REGION E OF 80W WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE COVERS THE THE W ATLC N OF 22N W OF 60W COVERING THE BAHAMAS ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 30N71W AND A SURFACE 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 30N73W WITH DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT SUPPRESSING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. A PERSISTENT WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N57W TO 28N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. SIMILAR ACTIVITY ARE BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVES OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC AND THE E CARIBBEAN MAINLY FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 57W-63W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ATLC WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES AND THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N35W TO 26N56W. $$ WALLACE