000 AXNT20 KNHC 120533 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS CENTERED NEAR 14.8N 31.5W OR ABOUT 475 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS 12/0300 UTC MOVING W AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 FOR MORE DETAILS. T.D. TWO IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION JUST W OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 31W-35W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS LOCATED WITHIN A BROAD MOISTURE OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH MID LEVEL CURVATURE OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 10N. TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM ALONG 64W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE AXIS OF THE WAVE IS ORIENTED AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A WEAK AND ILL DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE ELY TRADES AS WELL AS DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...THUS THE WAVE AXIS IS BASED ON CONTINUITY AND IS LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OR CONVECTION. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N16W 15N24W 9N39W 12N54W ALONG THE N COAST OF VENEZUELA TO OVER COLOMBIA AND E PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 14W-20W AND TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 24W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED OVER THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDING NE TO OVER THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA. MOIST UNSTABLE AIR ALSO DOMINATES THE GULF GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE N/CENTRAL N OF 27N TO THE COAST OF SE LOUISIANA BETWEEN 88W-91W. A SEA BREEZE INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH IS INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 30 NM ALONG THE COAST S OF 29N. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W YUCATAN/E BAY OF CAMPECHE GENERATING SIMILAR CONVECTION S OF 20N E OF 93W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL GULF. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH A PAIR OF 1017 MB HIGHS LOCATED NEAR 27N87W AND 29N92W. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR 16N81W. MOIST SLY UPPER FLOW COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 18N W OF 85W AND A NARROW LINE OF SIMILAR ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM S HAITI TO SE CUBA. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-20N W OF 80W. VERY DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REGION E OF 80W WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE COVERS THE THE W ATLC TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES E OF 60W ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 31N71W AND A SURFACE 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 30N75W WITH DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT SUPPRESSING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. A PERSISTENT WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N63W TO 26N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE E WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 31N57W TO 28N63W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY ARE BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVES OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 55W-63W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ATLC WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES AND THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N35W TO 26N58W. $$ WALLACE