000 AXNT20 KNHC 111152 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH WWWW UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS UPGRADED AT 11/1000 UTC CENTERED NEAR 14.4N 28.6W OR 280 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 FOR MORE DETAILS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS WEAK SHEAR OVER T.D.TWO...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS DISPLACED TO THE E WITHIN 60/75 NM OF 13N29W TO 16N30W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE AXIS OF THE WAVE IS ORIENTED WITHIN A BROAD MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 18N48W TO 13N52W. TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM ALONG 60W/61W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE AXIS OF THE WAVE IS ORIENTED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A WEAK AND ILL DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 60W-64W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MOVING W AWAY FROM BARBADOS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE ELY TRADES AS WELL AS DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHICH CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ACTUALLY LOCATION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIMIT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OR CONVECTION. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N16W 15N24W 9N39W 12N54W ALONG THE N COAST OF VENEZUELA TO OVER COLOMBIA AND E PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 14W-20W AND TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 24W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EXTENDS S OVER THE W ATLC ACROSS NE FLORIDA AND NE GULF N OF 28N E OF 90W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE NW GULF WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 25N94W TO THE SE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 29N91W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 83W-93W. A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM SE GEORGIA NEAR 31N82 ACROSS NE FLORIDA OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N85W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A SECOND WEAKER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDING ALONG 21N91W TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR 17N93W BUT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE GULF WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGHS. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER UPPER TROUGH IS ANCHORED OVER THE YUCATAN NEAR THE N BORDER OF GUATEMALA COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN E OF 83W WITH DRY AIR ALOFT PROMOTING GENERALLY CLEAR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY N OF 20N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 18N W OF 84W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR 13N78W. MOIST SW UPPER FLOW BETWEEN THE W CARIBBEAN TROUGH AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN RIDGE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N W OF 81W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE S PENINSULA OF HAITI AND JAMAICA. VERY DRY AIR ALOFT IS NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN REGION E OF 80W WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE CAROLINA COAST THAT COVERS THE FAR NE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 22N W OF 58W WITH DRY AIR ALOFT SUPPRESSING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS THROUGH 32N50W THROUGH A WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR 23N58W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS. THIS UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM A WEAK 1015 MB LOW NEAR 31N59W TO 26N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 30N BETWEEN 48W AND THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE TROUGH N OF 27N. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE W ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 31N75W AND A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS THROUGH 32N35W TO 27N53W. $$ WALLACE