000 AXNT20 KNHC 101802 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W S OF 21N FROM MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. A 1009 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 15N26W. SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGERY CONFIRMED THE LOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. PATCHES OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE S OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 24W-28W. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SEE THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45/46W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE AXIS IS ORIENTED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS OBSERVED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CURVATURE IS ALSO NOTED. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 44W-47W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS OBSERVED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE LOW CLOUDS IS ALSO ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 57W-62W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE ELY TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND COINCIDES WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DRY STABLE CONDITIONS THERE ARE NO ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OR CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS NOW INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS OR CONVECTION ARE NOTED. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 18N16W 12N35W 14N46W 11N50W 13N58W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 12W-17W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 9N-10N BETWEEN 28W-30W...AND FROM 10N-11N BETWEEN 33W-36W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 45W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 30N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 87W-89W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE GULF FROM 24N-25N BETWEEN 82W-85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 96W-98W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. 5-10 KT E-SE SURFACE WINDS COVER THE ENTIRE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER MEXICO NEAR 24N107W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MEXICO AND THE W GULF OF MEXICO W OF 95W. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE W GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE AFFECTING THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 10N77W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 77W-83W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N84W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N78W. EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 17N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N71W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO N FLORIDA NEAR 30N80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS AND S FLORIDA FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 78W-81W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N57W 27N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. FURTHER E... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N58W 22N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES AT 41N26W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N50W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 50W-70W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 19N43W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES AND SPECIAL FEATURES TO BE THE DOMINATE FEATURES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. $$ FORMOSA