000 AXNT20 KNHC 070556 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI AUG 07 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W TO THE SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY ITCZ PRECIPITATION. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W TO THE SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KT. NEARBY ITCZ PRECIPITATION. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO INTO NORTH CENTRAL COASTAL VENEZUELA...MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA THAT ALREADY IS COVERED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHOSE BASE REACHES NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA...AND THE BASE OF A DIFFERENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT REACHES THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT JUST ACCOMPANIES ONLY THE TROPICAL WAVE. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W/84W FROM WESTERN CUBA SOUTHWARD MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 15 KT. IT IS NOT EASY TO FIND SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT JUST ACCOMPANIES ONLY THE TROPICAL WAVE. SOME PRECIPITATION IS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA...AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN DIFFERENT AREAS OF DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 14N32W 12N42W 11N55W. WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SECOND ITCZ...AND/OR A SECOND OF LINE OF SURFACE CONFLUENT WIND FLOW...IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FIRST ONE ALONG 10N14W 9N23W 7N34W 7N41W 7N50W 6N56W. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES FROM YESTERDAY CLEARLY SHOW THAT THE WIND FLOW FROM THE EQUATOR NORTHWARD BLOWS RIGHT PAST THE 10N14W 6N56W LINE TOWARD THE 11N15W 11N55W LINE...GIVING THE IMPRESSION THAT THE NORTHERN-MORE LINE IS THE ITCZ. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN CLUSTERS NEAR 14N34W...AND WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N BETWEEN 43W AND 55W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR 6N42W...AND FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 46W AND 54W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE 10N14W 7N34W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 24N93W TO 19N99W INLAND IN SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS IN THE MIDDLE OF TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 28N85W TO 24N87W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN MEXICO BETWEEN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE BORDER WITH GUATEMALA...ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW...ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... STRONG MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN EASTERN EL SALVADOR AND ITS COASTAL WATERS...IN BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W...AND A SECOND ONE IS ALONG 83W/84W. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT EITHER WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH PRECIPITATION. ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 16N77W TO NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 71W WITH LAKE MARACAIBO AND 77W. THE BASE OF A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 25N67W OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 19N TO 20N BETWEEN 68W AND 69W JUST OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.. A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES BERMUDA TO 25N67W TO EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN 60W AND 73W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N72W 22N74W. THIS TROUGH USED TO BE THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO 26N78W IN THE PROVIDENCE CHANNEL...IN BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND AND GRAND BAHAMA AND ABACO ISLAND OF THE BAHAMAS...BEYOND 32N79W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N39W TO 19N48W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. $$ MT