000
AXNT20 KNHC 051759
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WESTWARD 10 
KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 
24W-30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS.  

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 15 KT. 
NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS NOTED.  

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 15-20 KT. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 15 KT. 
NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS NOTED.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 10N24W 12N33W 8N39W 9N60W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION AND SHOWERS ALREADY MENTIONED IN THE 
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 11N-14N 
BETWEEN 14W-20W. A 1012 MB LOW IS NEAR 11N33W MOVING WEST AT 10 
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NW OF 
THE CENTER FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 33W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF 
MISSISSIPPI NEAR 30N89W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND 
NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 27N83W 19N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS ESPECIALLY 
ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO N OF 24N W OF 85W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W PRODUCING 
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. 
EXPECT...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER 
THE GULF...FLORIDA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN 
SEA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA S OF 10N. FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE 
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... THE 
LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. EXPECT... 
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND PRODUCE 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT 
THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO MOVE W AND DO 
LIKEWISE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N49W. A RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE NW ATLANTIC NEAR 30N75W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW ATLANTIC N OF 25N W OF 70W. A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLAND ALONG 25N63W 18N65W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 60W-66W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... 
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W. 
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N66W. AN UPPER LEVEL 
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 18N21W. A RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDS W TO TO 15N50W.

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FORMOSA