000 AXNT20 KNHC 050604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED AUG 05 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30W/31W FROM 5N TO 16N. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 32W AND 34W. A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 9N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 35W AND 47W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N54W 9N52W MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 53W AND 57W. WHAT USED TO BE THE NORTHERN PART OF THE NOW 17N54W-9N52W TROPICAL WAVE IS A TROUGH ALONG 60W FROM 18N TO 25N. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. IT IS NOT EASY TO DETERMINE WHICH FEATURE IS MORE RESPONSIBLE FOR AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY NEARBY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W TO THE SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 13N24W...FROM 8N32W TO 10N50W...INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 9N63W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 25W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN GEORGIA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. NO SURFACE TROUGH OR FRONT ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH. AN WEST-TO-EAST SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES FROM JUST OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF CUBA TO JUST OFF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 19N96W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 17N104W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR IS ON TOP OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE...OVER THE WATERS AND INLAND AREAS...FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA TO 20N ON THE PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF MEXICO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH GOES FROM 17N67W TO 15N69W TO 11N73W IN NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA. UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE AND NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 30N64W TO 24N66W TO 17N68W JUST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE MONA PASSAGE. REMNANT ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N TO THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE FROM 17N68W TO JAMAICA TO THE BORDER OF THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH BELIZE. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS HELPING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA AND NEAR JAMAICA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS HELPING THE REST OF THE PRECIPITATION...TO THE WEST OF 84W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 30N64W TO 24N66W TO 17N68W JUST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE MONA PASSAGE. POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 59W AND 65W. $$ MT