000 AXNT20 KNHC 032329 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON AUG 03 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ADDED TO THE 1200 UTC ANALYSIS REMAINS ALONG 19W/20W BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE WAS RELOCATED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD BASED ON LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION. THE MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IS VERY BROAD COVERING THE AREA FROM 26W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. HOWEVER...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 23N48W 16N43W TO 9N41W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE FRESH TO STRONG MID-LATITUDE WINDS ARE PUSHING THE NORTH PORTION OF THE WAVE WEST FASTER THAN THE SOUTHERN PORTION WHICH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE ALIGNS WITH THE MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN REMAINS ALONG 62W/63W S OF 17N BASED ON MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DRIFTING WESTWARD. THE MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ACTUALLY SHOWS THE WAVE AXIS TO BE JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 57W-60W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N15W 9N29W 11N42W 9N50W 12N61W. BROAD AREA OF MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 9N29W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE ANALYZED AT 04/0000 UTC. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 9N31W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 27W-33W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ENTIRE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ALONG 29N TO A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 28N92W. AN UPPER HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NE MEXICO/S TEXAS EXTENDING AN UPPER RIDGE E ACROSS THE GULF TO NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA. DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF THIS UPPER RIDGE AND THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE GULF WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR TAMPA TO 25N92W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N E OF 93W. CARIBBEAN SEA... ALTHOUGH THERE IS A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN IT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA TO CENTRAL CUBA AND COUPLED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PROVIDING UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE AN ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY W OF 83W INCLUDING W CUBA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL... AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS SAME UPPER RIDGE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 15N W OF 81W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL AGAIN THIS EVENING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OFF THE E COAST OF THE SE US NW OF A LINE FROM NEAR MELBOURNE FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N73W IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH INLAND OVER THE US AND AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N73W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N63W BUT IS NOT GENERATING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. A SURFACE TROUGH...PREVIOUSLY A PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE... EXTENDS FROM 24N67W ACROSS E DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 17N69W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO OVER HISPANIOLA E OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO 72W. THE ENTIRE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED N OF THE REGION AND EXTENDS W OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS TRANQUIL THIS EVENING WITH AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST CLEARLY SEEN ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY E OF 60W FROM THE ITCZ TO 31N ALTHOUGH IT IS BEGINNING TO CLEAR N OF 26N E OF 25W. $$ WALLACE