000 AXNT20 KNHC 031107 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON AUG 03 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25N42W 20N42W 16N40W 12N38W 6N38W 6N36W MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 28N43W...SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THIS WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE GOES FROM 30 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TRINIDAD... ACROSS TRINIDAD...TO 15N65W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 22N68W...MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALSO IS NEARLY COINCIDENTAL WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABOUT 270 NM TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT 60 NM TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. IT MAY NOT BE EASY TO DETERMINE IF THIS PRECIPITATION IS RELATED MORE TO THE WAVE OR MORE TO THE TROUGH. A TROPICAL WAVE GOES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N92W INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. THE DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC SIX HOURS AGO HAS DISSIPATED. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT HAD BEEN FALLING IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO PROBABLY WAS MORE RELATED TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAN TO THIS TROPICAL WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... MORE OR LESS ALONG 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12.5N TO 14N BETWEEN 17W AND 18W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS OF 9N28W...AND FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 45W AND 46W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 16N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 90W... AND TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 90W. THIS AREA IS CAUGHT UP IN THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN CUBA- TO-ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE NORTH OF THE CUBA-TO-ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TROUGH. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC SIX HOURS AGO. ALL THAT PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED FOR THE MOMENT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JAMAICA TO EASTERN HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 80W TO THE NORTH OF THE ITCZ IN BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A LINGERING INVERTED TROUGH COVERS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO TO THE EAST OF 70W. IT APPEARS THAT A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORMING NEAR 13N64W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N63W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 24N64W 20N64W TO PUERTO RICO. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE FROM 25N TO 32N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 28N43W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. $$ MT