000 AXNT20 KNHC 021716 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN AUG 02 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1630 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS IS ALONG 34W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE PREVIOUSLY EXTENDED FARTHER NORTH...BUT HAS NOW FRACTURED WITH THE NRN PORTION FORMING A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 40W. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WAVE AXIS. A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS INHIBITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 21N64W 15N62W 10N61W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE LIES AHEAD OF AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NEAR THE N PORTION OF THIS WAVE NEAR 18N87W ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 86W-89W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 10N24W 11N36W 10N48W 10N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER INLAND AFRICA FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 14W-17W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 21W-26W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 38W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 28N COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF OF MEXICO BRINGING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF S FLORIDA FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 82W-85W ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF CENTERED OVER NRN MEXICO NEAR 28N102W AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N87W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER THE NE GULF FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 84W-88W ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW IS PRESENT AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE WITH WINDS REACHING 15 KT ACROSS THE WRN GULF. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 89W TO MOVE THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 89W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 86W-89W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 18N87W. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 75W-86W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN JUST OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 80W-82W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE E PACIFIC ITCZ AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OFF THE COAST OF COLUMBIA NEAR 11N77W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS SUPPORTING THE FAIR WEATHER AND INHIBITING CONVECTION NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE W ATLC N OF 27N BETWEEN 58W-64W ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 31N63W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLC...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 35N48W BRINGING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN. HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N40W TO 28N42W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 42W-45W. THIS TROUGH ORIGINATED AS THE N PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 34W WHICH HAS NOW FRACTURED OFF TO FORM THE SURFACE TROUGH. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA S OF 25N CENTERED NEAR 19N38W. $$ WALT0N