000
AXNT20 KNHC 021103
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24N39W 18N37W 13N34W
6N33W MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS 
SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THIS WAVE THAT IS ALONG 30N34W...
TO A 24N38W CYCLONIC CENTER...TO 13N43W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N63W 17N60W 9N59W
MOVING WEST ABOUT 20 KT. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS WAVE.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE GOES FROM WESTERN CUBA TO CENTRAL 
HONDURAS AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...MOVING WEST ABOUT 
20 KT. ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA MOST PROBABLY IS NOT RELATED TO THIS WAVE.
THAT PRECIPITATION MOST PROBABLY IS RELATED TO A MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

...THE ITCZ...

ALONG 11N15W AT THE AFRICA COAST TO 10N30W TO 9N53W INTO
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 8N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 14N BETWEEN  
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W/THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA.
 
...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA TOWARD 
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FLOW OF 
UPPER LEVEL AIR CORRESPONDS TO THE WESTERN CUBA-TO-GULF OF 
HONDURAS TROUGH. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE 
LINE FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO 24N93W. AN INVERTED TROUGH
IS ALONG THE MEXICO WEST COAST FROM 17N TO 24N.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF WESTERN 
MEXICO. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN THE TEXAS BIG BEND
AND 106W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR/
SUBSIDENCE ALONG 16N64W 15N69W 13N74W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ALL THE STRONG CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN DRAGGED INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
BY THE FLOW AROUND THE TROUGH.
 
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N62W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER TO 25N64W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 24N TO 34N 
BETWEEN 58W AND 64W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 50W AND 
58W...TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH. WEAK REMNANT UPPER LEVEL 
CYCLONIC FLOW IS HANGING ON IN THE AREA FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 
48W AND 53W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 30N34W...
TO A 24N38W CYCLONIC CENTER...TO 13N43W IS SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST
OF THE 24N39W 18N37W 13N34W 6N33W TROPICAL WAVE.

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