000
AXNT20 KNHC 011100
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 01 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24N32W 17N30W 12N27W
5N27W MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS 
WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 13N28W. ANY OTHER NEARBY PRECIPITATION 
IS PROBABLY MORE RELATED TO THE ITCZ THAN JUST TO THE WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25N48W 20N52W 14N54W
8N54W MOVING WEST 25 TO 30 KT. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS WAVE.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE GOES FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA NEAR 
21N78W...TO 15N80W...PASSING ACROSS PANAMA ALONG 81W/82W...
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...MOVING WEST ABOUT 25 KT. 
PRECIPITATION IS TO THE WEST OF THIS WAVE ALONG THE COAST OF 
HONDURAS...MOST PROBABLY THE RESULT OF ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES
AND PROCESSES OTHER THAN JUST THIS TROPICAL WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 13N17W TO 10N30W TO 10N50W...INTO 
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 9N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 15N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 60W/THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA.
 
...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...SPREADING BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 120 NM TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA
TO SOUTH FLORIDA BETWEEN ANDROS ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE 
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 
90W.  STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN MEXICO FROM
18N TO 21N BETWEEN 100W AND 104W...AROUND A 20N102W UPPER LEVEL 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 21N63W 15N65W 11N66W.
WEAK SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND ISOLATED MODERATE 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN 
REPUBLIC. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS OVER
THE WATERS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ALONG 81W...
SPREADING ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE WATERS THAT
ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF HAITI...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND CUBA.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF 
HONDURAS...ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT 
PASSES THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS INTO CENTRAL HONDURAS.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ALSO ARE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
 
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 32N60W.
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 54W
70W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 25N TO 34N BETWEEN 50W AND 
70W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 23N TO 28N 
BETWEEN 44W AND 50W...SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE.
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 13N TO 25N
BETWEEN 20W AND 40W...AROUND THE 24N32W 5N27W TROPICAL WAVE.
NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THIS AREA.

$$
MT