000 AXNT20 KNHC 311732 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W TO THE SOUTH OF 24N MOVING WEST AT 25 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE A BROAD LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE ALSO EXHIBITS A HIGH AMPLITUDE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST IS NE OF THE WAVE...AND ALSO W OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST AT 20 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 71W-77W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N17W 10N30W 11N45W 10N61W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 22W-30W... AND FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 44W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 30N. 10-15 KT S WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 83W-85W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS IS ALONG THE COAST OF E TEXAS FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 93W-96W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE N GULF COAST FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N MEXICO AT 27N105W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N85W. A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS TEXAS...THE N GULF N OF 28N...AND FLORIDA. EXPECT...MORE CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 82W-86W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE. SEE ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY DRY AIR AND IS VOID OF CONVECTION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...EASTERLY FLOW IS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 15N...AND OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. EXPECT...MORE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 79W-80W. A 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N54W PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO N FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N58W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NEAR 29N40W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 32N9W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 19N44W. EXPECT...TROPICAL CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ...AND WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. $$ FORMOSA