000
AXNT20 KNHC 291650
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1615 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W TO THE SOUTH
OF 22N MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS FOUND EASILY
IN CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 26W AND 28W. ITCZ PRECIPITATION
IS TO THE SOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 16N29W JUST TO THE WEST OF THE WAVE. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS CYCLONIC CENTER.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W TO THE SOUTH
OF 18N MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS 
ARE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 51W AND 62W. SOME OF THIS 
PRECIPITATION IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ISLANDS AND/OR IT ALREADY HAS REACHED PARTS OF TRINIDAD
AND NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA.

A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W/86W TO 
THE SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 20 TO 25 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE 
SHOWERS ARE FROM 11N TO WESTERN CUBA BETWEEN 82W AND 86W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 11N33W TO THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 9N61W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE ITCZ TO THE EAST OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS MOVING TO THE 
NORTH OF THE CITY OF MORELIA NEAR 20N101W...WITHOUT ANY DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION AROUND IT. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS MOST OF TEXAS AWAY FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE CENTRAL 
U.S.A. THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS TROUGH BARELY TOUCHES OR COMES
CLOSE TO SKIRTING THE NORTHERN END OF OUR BULLETIN AREA OF THE
U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS TO THE NORTH OF 30N OVER LAND. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ONE CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 
31N76W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 24N78W JUST OFF ANDROS 
ISLAND...TO 21N80W TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA IN THE NORTHWESTERN 
CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO 
180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH...INCLUDING FROM 24N TO 27N 
TO THE EAST OF 85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND TO THE NORTHWEST 
OF 26N78W 31N71W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR
17N59W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11N64W JUST OFF 
THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF VENEZUELA. THIS TROUGH IS JUST TO THE 
WEST OF THE APPROACHING 57W/58W TROPICAL WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE 
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 15N
TO THE EAST OF 68W. THE SOUTHERN END OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM ANDROS ISLAND TO 21N80W JUST TO THE SOUTH 
OF CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 
TO THE WEST OF 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N56W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER TO 24N61W. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES
THIS TROUGH. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 
32N36W TO 24N39W...WITHOUT ANY DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

$$
MT