000 AXNT20 KNHC 282338 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS TRAVERSING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 23W S OF 24N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. AN UNRELATED 1011 MB LOW HAPPENS TO BE W OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N28W IN A VERY DRY AIRMASS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OR SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. ALSO... RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLONIC TURNING OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR THIS WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A WELL-DEFINED MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN INVERTED-V PATTERN OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ARE INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE W OF JAMAICA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 76W-80W ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N16W 16N23W 11N35W 11N51W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 14W-17W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 19W-27W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 31W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 30N. 10-15 KT S WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF. PATCHES OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE S GULF...FLORIDA... AND W CUBA. ELSEWHERE PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE NE COAST FROM LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE MOVING E. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER TAMPICO MEXICO AT 22N98W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 26N88W. A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF...FLORIDA...CUBA ...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT...MORE CONVECTION OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W...FLORIDA...AND W CUBA...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS UP TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLUMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL CUBA BETWEEN 77W-81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER INLAND HONDURAS FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 83W-86W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 77W. SEE ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY DRY AIR AND IS VOID OF CONVECTION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W. SE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. EXPECT...MORE CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO TROPICAL WAVES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS AND W ATLANTIC FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 75W-80W. A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N56W PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO N FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N BETWEEN 75W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FURTHER E BETWEEN 65W-75W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N56W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N12W. EXPECT...TROPICAL CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ...AND WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FLORIDA. $$ FORMOSA