000 AXNT20 KNHC 262345 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS INDICATE CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WITHIN THE 950-800 MB LAYER IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WAVE. ALSO...RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLONIC MOTION OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR THIS WAVE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 35W-37W. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N59W TO 12N58W TO 7N56W MOVING W 25-30 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A WELL-DEFINED MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN INVERTED-V PATTERN IN THE COVERAGE OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR THIS WAVE. STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ARE INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 58W-62W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 9N-10N BETWEEN 55W-57W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W S OF 22N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 90W-94W. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N87W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 11N20W 12N30W 9N45W 10N61W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 15W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 42W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 30N. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALSO OVER THE S GULF ALONG 91W S OF 22N. SEE ABOVE. 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF. PATCHES OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE S GULF...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND FLORIDA. ELSEWHERE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 90W-94W MOVING S. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 25N93W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER IS HELPING TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE SE GULF AND FLORIDA. A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE GULF. EXPECT... CONVECTION OVER THE LOUISIANA COAST...FLORIDA COAST...AND THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS UP TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLUMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HAITI AND E CUBA WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 82W-85W. THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 91W IS ALSO PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA. FURTHER E...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DUE TO ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE E OF BARBADOS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 60W-67W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY DRY AIR AND IS VOID OF CONVECTION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N87W. EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. EXPECT...MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER CUBA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 75W-79W. A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N47W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO N FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 27N55W TO 21N56W. THIS TROUGH DELINEATES A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT HAS BROKEN AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE FURTHER S. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FURTHER E CENTERED NEAR 29N60W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 24N50W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N12W. EXPECT...TROPICAL CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ...AND WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. $$ FORMOSA