000 AXNT20 KNHC 261043 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ALSO INDICATE LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 31W-33W. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N53W TO 5N49W MOVING W 25-30 KT. THIS WAVE WAS RELOCATED FARTHER W THAN ITS CURRENT MOTION SUGGESTS IN ORDER TO COINCIDE BETTER WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 48W-51W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W S OF 21N MOVING NEAR W 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 84W-87W...AND FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 85W-91W. THIS CONVECTION IS ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 17N90W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 11N30W 9N41W 11N54W 9N64W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 14W-20W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 35W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE IS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING W ALONG 27N FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SE GULF EXTENDING FROM 23N85W TO 27N83W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 30N89W TO CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 21N100W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH...AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CENTERED NEAR 16N91W ALONG WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SRN GULF S OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM 29N83W TO 21N97W. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE WITH WINDS REACHING 15 KT IN THE W GULF...AND REACHING 20 KT NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO LIFT N BY MID WEEK...AND SE FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE WRN GULF BY TUE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER W TEXAS. CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN N OF 12N W OF 84W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...BELIZE...AND GUATEMALA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH NEAR 16N91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA FROM 9N-10N BETWEEN 79W-82W. THESE SHOWERS ARE ENHANCED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE E PACIFIC ITCZ. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS UNDER THE PRESENCE OF A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER E OF 78W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH SURFACE WINDS REACHING 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLUMBIA. EXPECT A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE ATLC TO APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE FAR W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 74W. THIS ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND NW BAHAMAS AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N71 ALONG WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 20N52W TO 26N50W. THIS TROUGH IS A FRACTURED OFF PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT EXTENDS FROM 17N53W TO 5N49W. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLC...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE IS PRESENT ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N43W BRINGING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 22N51W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. $$ WALTON