000 AXNT20 KNHC 220555 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W TO THE SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 20 TO 25 KT. NO PRECIPITATION REALLY IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THIS WAVE. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ITCZ ABOUT 240 NM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE WAVE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE GOES FROM 21N58W TO SAINT LUCIA TO 5N62W IN SOUTHEASTERN VENEZUELA... MOVING WEST ABOUT 25 KT. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24N72W 15N73W 6N73W IN CENTRAL COLOMBIA...MOVING WEST 20 TO 25 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN COLOMBIA FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS CURVE FROM THE WATERS BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA...TO A CURVED LINE BETWEEN WESTERN JAMAICA AND NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...AND IN THE WATERS FROM 11N TO 13N AT THE NICARAGUA COAST BETWEEN 80W AND LAND. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W/90W...MOVING WEST ABOUT 20 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING FROM NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA...ACROSS SOUTHERN HONDURAS...INTO EASTERN EL SALVADOR. THIS PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN FLOURISHING UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW...WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IMMEDIATELY TO THE WEST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. ...THE ITCZ... FROM AFRICA NEAR 13N17W TO 11N40W TO 8N50W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF SURINAME NEAR 6N55W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 47W AND 55W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO COVER THE AREA FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 56W AND 60W... INCLUDING NORTHWESTERN SURINAME...AND NORTHEASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN GUYANA. ...DISCUSSION... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE ENTIRE STATE OF FLORIDA TO THE CUBA COAST NEAR 23N82W. THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE WEST OF 77W ALSO ARE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND GETTING SOME SHOWERS. UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS FLORIDA...AND MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXCEPT FOR THAT PART THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.A...PASSING THROUGH LOUISIANA TO TO EAST TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN MEXICO FROM 25N102W TO 19N100W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA TO SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND WATERS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM 70W TO ITS BORDER WITH HAITI. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA TO THE WEST OF THE INVERTED TROUGH...AROUND A 13N78W ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING FROM NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA... ACROSS SOUTHERN HONDURAS...INTO EASTERN EL SALVADOR. THIS PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN FLOURISHING UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW...WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IMMEDIATELY TO THE WEST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE 89W/90W TROPICAL WAVE ALSO IS IN THE AREA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N77W-GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND-CUBA NEAR 22N79W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 69W AND 75W...IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COMBINED WITH THE FLORIDA TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N62W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 23N55W TO 16N58W TO 13N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 50W AND 64W. $$ MT