000 AXNT20 KNHC 191721 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 15-20 KT. THIS POSITION IS IN PHASE WITH THE SSMI/AMSRE DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE ITCZ. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR THE WAVE AXIS AT 13N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 50W-53W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W SOUTH OF 24N MOVING WEST 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE SSMI/AMSRE DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SATELLITE IMAGERY. AN INVERTED-V PATTERN OF LOW CLOUDS IS ALSO EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 66W-70W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 6N28W 11N40W 11N50W 9N61W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 23W-27W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 56W-58W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 31N81W 29N84W 28N90W 28N96W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 82W-95W. A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N87W. MOSTLY FAIR SKIES ARE OVER THE S GULF S OF 25N. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE E GULF. NORTHERLY WINDS N OF THE FRONT ARE ONLY 10 KT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A LARGE TROUGH IS N OF 25N. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS N OF 24N WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE S GULF. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MORE CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA. ON SHORE FLOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE MORE CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST OF E TEXAS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER THE GULF OF URABA NEAR 9N77W TIGHTENING THE SURFACE GRADIENT PRESSURE. FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE THUS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION S OF PUERTO RICO. SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 80W-85W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING MAINLY SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT FOR THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED. EXPECT...CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN DUE TO TROPICAL WAVES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 14N. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N44W. SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS W FROM THE HIGH TO E OF THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W. FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WEATHER IS OVER THE ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-75W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC BETWEEN 70W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N54W. A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 40W-50W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N17W. OVER THE TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 15N50W. EXPECT...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. $$ FORMOSA