000
AXNT20 KNHC 190542
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W TO THE SOUTH
OF 15N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. NO NEARBY PRECIPITATION.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W TO THE SOUTH
OF 16N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 7N TO 14N BETWEEN 45W AND 54W. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N 
TO 14N BETWEEN 47W AND 51W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE
FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.
 
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W TO THE SOUTH OF
22N MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING AWAY FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS RIGHT ON TOP OF IT 24 HOURS AGO.
THE WAVE NOW IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE 
SOUTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF A LINE FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO
THE NORTH CENTRAL HONDURAS COAST.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM AFRICA NEAR 11N14W TO 9N23W 11N33W 10N45W 9N54W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 9N61W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 26W...AND FROM 4N TO 10N TO THE WEST OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND TOWARD 
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. COMPARATIVELY STRONGER SHOWERS WERE 
OCCURRING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST DURING THE 
EVENING HOURS OF LAST NIGHT. THAT PRECIPITATION HAS DISSIPATED.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS NOW COVER THE WATERS FROM 24N TO 27N
BETWEEN 77W AND 79W. AN UPPER LEVEL PASSES THROUGH EASTERN 
LOUISIANA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS. A STATIONARY FRONT 
IS IN THE GULF COAST PLAINS JUST TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN
GEORGIA AND EAST TEXAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE COASTS FROM 
WESTERN PANAMA TO COSTA RICA...IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG 
THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER NEAR THE ITCZ. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO 20N84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER 
OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF A LINE FROM 
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO THE NORTH CENTRAL HONDURAS COAST.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A 28N52W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 22N57W TO 16N61W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 
19N TO 22N BETWEEN 57W AND 64W. OTHER AREAS OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS 
CLOUDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 14N TO 
21N BETWEEN 50W AND 62W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 32N19W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 20N26W...WITH NO
PRECIPITATION. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. 
A SURFACE RIDGE 26N78W 30N65W BEYOND 32N55W.

$$
MT