000
AXNT20 KNHC 142354
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A NEW ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W TO THE SOUTH
OF 16N. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 11.5N
BETWEEN 24W AND 26W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W TO THE SOUTH
OF 17N MOVING WEST ABOUT 20 KT. SOME CELLS OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 37W AND 38W.
CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER THE AREA
FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 33W AND 40W.

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
GUYANA NEAR 7N60W TO SAINT VINCENT TO BASSE TERRE OF GUADELOUPE
TO 23N63W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE WAVE IS MOVING WEST ABOUT
20 KT. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE 
LINE FROM TOBAGO TO 15N62W TO THE ANEGADA PASSAGE TO 23N63W.
 
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W/98W TO THE SOUTH OF MEXICO IN THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY DOES NOT 
SUGGEST THAT ANY DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT ACCOMPANIES 
THIS WAVE IS AFFECTING MEXICO AT THIS TIME.

...THE ITCZ...

11N15W 12N20W 10N30W 12N36W 9N43W 9N50W 11N59W. STRONG SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN AFRICA FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 11W AND 
16W...AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 13W AND 
15W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE ITCZ TO THE WEST OF 48W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO NORTHEASTERN 
FLORIDA ARE IN AN AREA OF THE TAIL END OF A WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT ORIGINATES ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST 
COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 27N TO 30N/31N BETWEEN NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND 
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS IN 
THE SAME AREA OR SLIGHTLY MORE INLAND. WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
HAS BEEN IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR
THE LAST TWELVE HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE 
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NORTH CENTRAL 
NICARAGUA. THE CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER THAT IS ABOUT 70 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE WINDWARD 
PASSAGE-TO-NICARAGUA LINE. A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE 
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM GUYANA NEAR 7N60W TO SAINT VINCENT
TO BASSE TERRE OF GUADELOUPE TO 23N63W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. 
THE WAVE IS MOVING WEST ABOUT 20 KT. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM TOBAGO TO 15N62W
TO THE ANEGADA PASSAGE TO 23N63W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST
OF 70W...TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE EASTERN U.S.A. COAST
TROUGH. A SEPARATE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM BERMUDA TO 27N73W TO CUBA NEAR 22N77W. THIS TROUGH 
EVENTUALLY CONTINUES TO THE NEAR-GRAND CAYMAN CYCLONIC CENTER
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND 
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N71W 
BEYOND BERMUDA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N67W TO 26N71W
TO 23N73W. A WEAK AND/OR WEAKENING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER 
IS NEAR 29N58W. REMNANTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPEAR TO
EXTEND FROM 29N58W TO 20N59W.

$$
MT