000 AXNT20 KNHC 081059 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED JUL 08 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KT. ITCZ PRECIPITATION IS NEAR THIS WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INLAND ALONG 88W...STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO WESTERN HONDURAS TO EL SALVADOR AND BEYOND. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT I HAVE MOVED THIS WAVE TO THE WEST AT TOO FAST A PACE. STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION REMAINS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF EASTERN NICARAGUA NEAR 12N83W TO 18N85W. IT IS POSSIBLE TOO THAT THIS CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ALSO IS MAINTAINING ITSELF IN THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW...GIVEN THE POSITIONS OF A SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 20N92W AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ...THE ITCZ... FROM LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W TO 5N20W TO 7N40W TO 9N50W...INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 8N61W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W...AND FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTERIOR MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. A WATER VAPOR LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS TO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ARE TO THE NORTH OF 26N. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 20N92W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 20N83W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE SHOWERS AROUND CUBA FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAVE DISSIPATED. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE EAST OF THE 88W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN MOVED TO THE WEST AT TOO FAST A PACE. WE WILL HAVE TO CHECK THE 08/1200 UTC OBSERVATIONS AND CONDITIONS AND TRY TO FIGURE IT OUT AGAIN. THE DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM SIX HOURS AGO IS IN BASICALLY THE SAME LOCATION NOW. IT EXTENDS FROM THE PANAMA COAST ALONG 80W TO 12N83W TO 18N85W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS TO THE EAST OF 66W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 67W. A WEAKENING TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 30N57W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 24N65W TO THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 31N71W TO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF 27N80W BEYOND 32N64W. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 30N57W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 24N65W TO THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 22N50W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 18N57W TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N63W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N20W TO 25N30W TO 24N37W TO A 1019 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 25N43W TO A 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 22N51W TO 17N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 45W AND 60W. A LOT OF LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 50W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 28N25W TO 22N30W. A DEFORMATION AXIS CONTINUES FROM 22N30W TO 22N47W. A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N37W. A SEPARATE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N27W AND EVENTUALLY IT BLENDS INTO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 28N25W TO 22N30W TROUGH. $$ MT