000
AXNT20 KNHC 080555
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 08 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/42W TO THE SOUTH
OF 17N MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KT. ITCZ PRECIPITATION IS
NEAR THIS WAVE.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W/85W...PASSING OVER
THE WESTERN END OF JAMAICA...TO THE SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WEST
20 TO 25 KT. THIS WAVE CROSSES ON TOP OF EASTERN HONDURAS AND
RIGHT DOWN THE MIDDLE OF NICARAGUA...AND IT CUTS THROUGH FAR
NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER
THE AREA FROM EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA TO EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS TO THE WATERS ABOUT 65 NM TO THE NORTH
OF EASTERN HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE
TO THE NORTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 80W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM AFRICA NEAR 10N15W TO 5N29W TO 10N43W...INTO NORTHEASTERN 
VENEZUELA NEAR 8N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 20W
AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTERIOR MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR
29N82W TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. A WATER VAPOR LEVEL TROUGH IS 
MOVING THROUGH MISSOURI...ARKANSAS...AND LOUISIANA TO THE TEXAS 
GULF COASTAL WATERS. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND 
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ARE TO THE NORTH OF 26N. AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A YUCATAN PENINSULA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER NEAR 20N90W TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. ANOTHER UPPER 
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 20N83W IN THE 
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
AROUND CUBA FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 80W AND 87W...AROUND THE 
20N83W CYCLONIC CENTER AND TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA CYCLONIC CENTER.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR THE 83W/85W TROPICAL 
WAVE...FROM EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA TO 65 NM TO THE NORTH
OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS. PART OF THE EASTERN AND 
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 10N63W IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA TROUGH
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH. A WEAKENING TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
30N57W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 24N65W TO THE EASTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 31N71W TO NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 32N68W TO THE FLORIDA 
EAST COAST NEAR 29N81W. A WEAKENING TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 30N57W 
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 24N65W TO THE EASTERN DOMINICAN 
REPUBLIC. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 22N50W 
TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 18N57W TO THE NORTHEASTERN 
COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N63W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 50W 
AND 60W. A LOT OF LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN 
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 50W. 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER 
NEAR 28N25W TO 22N29W. A DEFORMATION AXIS CONTINUES FROM 22N29W 
TO 21N47W. A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 28N36W. 
A SEPARATE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 26N31W.

$$
MT