000
AXNT20 KNHC 051741
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W S OF 16N MOVING W 15-20 KT. AN 
INVERTED-V LOW CLOUD BAND IS NOTED AND THE SSMI TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A MOISTURE PLUME. CONVECTION IS 
CONFINED TO THE ITCZ. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
9N-12N BETWEEN 21W-28W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. A WELL 
DEFINED INVERTED-V LOW CLOUD BAND IS NOTED AND THE SSMI TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A LARGE MOISTURE PLUME. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 
10N-20N BETWEEN 60W-70W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W S OF 20N MOVING W 20 KT. THE SSMI 
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE 
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 
76W-85W. 

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 11N30W 9N40W 7N58W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W 
AFRICA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 12W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FURTHER N FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 17W-19W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 21W-28W...AND FROM 
8N-10N BETWEEN 40W-48W.  

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 26N. 
A BAND OF HIGH CLOUD IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N WHILE MOSTLY 
CLEAR SKIES ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. WINDS ARE 
PREDOMINATELY 10 KT WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA AND HIGHER WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 
30N. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS N OF 27N AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS 
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.     

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN. 
SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER SRN GUATEMALA. 
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH 
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. EXPECT...THE 
TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE QUICKLY W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH 
CONVECTION.     
 
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N60W. A 1011 MB LOW 
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N34W. A SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 28N36W 26N42W 26N47W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 30W-33W. A 1021 MB 
HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N20W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A 
SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N75W. 
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FURTHER E NEAR 26N64W. AN UPPER LEVEL 
HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N53W. A LARGE UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC BETWEEN 30W-45W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER W AFRICA NEAR 15N14W. EXPECT THE 
SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NE TO NEAR 35N28W IN 24 HOURS WITH 
CONVECTION. 

$$
FORMOSA