000
AXNT20 KNHC 051118
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W TO THE SOUTH OF 
16N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS 
WAVE...IF NOT ALL OF IT...SOMEHOW IS WRAPPED UP IN THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W JUST ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN 
SEA. THE BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM 
SIX HOURS AGO REMAINS IN THE AREA OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN/EASTERN 
CARIBBEAN SEA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM NORTHEASTERN 
VENEZUELA/NEAR TRINIDAD TO 16N BETWEEN 58W AND 61W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W TO THE SOUTH OF 
20N MOVING WEST 20 TO 25 KT. THE NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE INLAND IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA SIX HOURS
AGO HAVE MOVED TOWARD THE COAST BETWEEN 75W AND 76W FROM 9N TO 
10N. THIS PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY THE ONLY NOTICEABLE DEEP 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT POSSIBLY MAY BE ACCOMPANYING THIS 
WAVE RIGHT NOW.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 92W/93W...FROM 17N IN THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 20 KT. 
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES
THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM AFRICA NEAR 12N16W TO 8N30W TO 6N45W TO 7N56W. NUMEROUS 
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE OCCURRING ON TOP OF 
SENEGAL AND GAMBIA ABOUT SIX HOURS AGO HAVE WEAKENED...WITH
WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES...AND LINGERING PRECIPITATION.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N21W
8N33W 7N40W...AND WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N40W 6N53W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTERIOR MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N70W TO A CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 27N75W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS 
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN 
CHANNEL...TO 22N91W HEADING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO...TO AN INTERIOR MEXICO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 
24N104W. MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN MEXICO TO 
THE NORTH OF THE 24N104W CYCLONIC CENTER HAS WEAKENED DURING THE 
LAST SIX HOURS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN ANDROS 
ISLAND AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE 
OF THE TROUGH IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 28N TO 31N.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 23N65W 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO HISPANIOLA TO 16N74W. A SEPARATE 
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
14N74W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 
YUCATAN CHANNEL TO NORTHERN HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS 
ARE TO THE NORTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 80W. UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN 
CORNERS OF THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG 
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA TO THE EAST OF 70W. SOME OF THIS 
PRECIPITATION IS WITH THE 60W TROPICAL WAVE. SOME OF IT IS WITH
WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THAT SPANS
THE AREA BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. 

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE 
TROUGH FROM A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N35W TO 27N37W
TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 26N42W TO 27N48W. THE 
TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 31N34W TO 26N36W TO 25N43W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 
30N32W TO 26N35W 25N42W...AND FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 32W AND 
35W. 

$$
MT