000
AXNT20 KNHC 050533
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUL 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W TO THE SOUTH OF 16N 
MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS 
WAVE...IF NOT ALL OF IT...SOMEHOW IS WRAPPED UP IN THE ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS A LITTLE BIT TO THE EAST OF 
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...ALONG 20N55W 16N56W 6N57W. 
THIS WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE 
SHOWERS ARE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 53W AND 59W...IN BROAD 
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. IT IS EASILY
BELIEVABLE THAT THE WAVE IS CONTRIBUTING ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY AND ENERGY TO THIS AREA OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W TO THE SOUTH OF 
19N MOVING WEST 20 TO 25 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A WELL 
DEFINED MOISTURE MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA FROM
7N TO 9N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W IS MOST LIKELY THE ONLY NOTICEABLE
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT POSSIBLY MAY BE ACCOMPANYING
THIS WAVE RIGHT NOW.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W/91W...FROM 16N IN GUATEMALA 
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 20 KT. ONE SMALL AREA OF 
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN SIDE OF GUATEMALA NEAR 14N91W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM AFRICA NEAR 12N17W TO 9N30W TO 8N40W 7N50W 8N56W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N18W 9N30W
7N40W 6N50W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM
OF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 8N TO 10N.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTERIOR MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N71W TO 28N75W...ACROSS
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N83W TO 23N88W TO 25N96W TO AN 
INTERIOR MEXICO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 23N104W.
THE DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF
THE 23N104W CYCLONIC CENTER HAS BEEN WEAKENING DURING THE LAST
SIX HOURS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N 
TO 26N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W...AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 26N 
TO 27N BETWEEN 87W AND 89W. THE EARLIER DEEP CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION THAT WAS IN THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS 
DISSIPATED. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS 
ARE IN INTERIOR MEXICO FROM 17N TO 23N IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 21N65W 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO HISPANIOLA TO 17N73W. ONE CELL OF 
PRECIPITATION IS IN SOUTHWESTERN HAITI. A SEPARATE MIDDLE LEVEL 
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS 14N74W. A MIDDLE 
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO 
NORTHERN HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 
15N TO THE WEST OF 80W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE 
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CORNERS OF THE AREA. ISOLATED 
MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON TOP OF 
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 59W 
AND 65W...IN THE MIDDLE OF WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A TROUGH. THE PRECIPITATION AND TROUGH ARE 
TO THE WEST OF A 20N55W 16N56W 6N57W TROPICAL WAVE. 

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE 
TROUGH FROM A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N35W TO 26N40W
TO A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N44W TO 28N49W. THE 
TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 31N35W TO 27N36W TO 26N43W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 
34N33W TO 29N34W 27N37W 26N43W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS 
ARE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 53W AND 59W...IN BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL 
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW.

$$
MT