000 AXNT20 KNHC 032359 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI JUL 03 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 22 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED ON THE TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN INVERTED-V CLOUD SIGNATURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 12N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 40W-45W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED ON THE TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN AND WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 7N-16N BETWEEN 61W-68W. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED IN THE SE QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N69W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 18 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS CONVECTION IS SW OF A LINE FROM 8N77W TO 15N83W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 7N27W 9N40W 8N43W 5N52W 8N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 13W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 48W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG 30N81W 30N86W 30N89W AND INLAND ACROSS ERN LOUISIANA. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG THE ERN U.S. SEABOARD INTO THE NE GULF NEAR 28N87W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N90W. LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY AND AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE SE GULF ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 83W-89W. ALSO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE SRN FLORIDA PENINSULA DUE TO ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF LIGHT WINDS ARE OBSERVED NEAR THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WITH ENHANCED SELY SURFACE WINDS TO 15 KT W OF 94W. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE IMPACTING THE CARIBBEAN. THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 63W IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN AND WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 7N-16N BETWEEN 61W-68W AND IS BEING ENHANCED IN THE SE QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 14N69W. THE OTHER TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS SW OF A LINE FROM 8N77W TO 15N83W...BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS CUBA AND THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS DUE TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND MAXIMUM ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS UNDER FRESH TO STRONG ELY TRADE WIND FLOW. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE ERN U.S. SEABOARD WITH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS NE FLORIDA INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N79W AND CONTINUES TO SAVANNAH GEORGIA WHERE IS TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY S OF THE FRONT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE ERN FLORIDA COAST AND NEARBY W ATLC COASTAL WATERS FROM 25N-31N W OF 79W. OTHER ISOLATED ACTIVITY ON MOIST SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 74W-79W. FARTHER TO THE E...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N60W WHERE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS OBSERVED N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-74W. A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N42W AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NE ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG 31N41W 29N41W TO 25N46W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR AND E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 25N-33N BETWEEN 34W-41W AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE ERN ATLC IS BEING IMPACTED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ON A QUASI-STATIONARY 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N25W THAT IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF STRONG N-NE WINDS OF UP TO 30 KT ALONG THE W AFRICA COAST FROM 21N-33N E OF 19W. $$ HUFFMAN