000 AXNT20 KNHC 011122 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED JUL 01 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W S OF 14N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD STRUCTURE S OF 10N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 33W-37W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND CONTINUES ON THE LEADING EDGE OF DUST AND A MIDDLE LAYER SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO THE W. WHILE NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...THE WAVE MAY BE ENHANCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION W OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE SRN LESSER ANTILLES FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 61W-64W. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 18 KT. WHILE THIS WAVE IS PRIMARILY IN THE E PACIFIC...IT IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER SRN MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 93W-99W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N11W 9N18W 7N27W 5N43W AND INTO NE S AMERICA NEAR 5N54W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 17W-21W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 38W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN UNITED STATES AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE N CENTRAL/NE GULF FROM N OF 27N E OF 92W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE W ATLC. THIS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN IS ALSO SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA E OF 82W N OF 25N. A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF EXTENDS FROM 20N89W TO 25N85W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N95W AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N78W ARE SUPPORTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS S OF 20N BETWEEN 91W-96W. THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 96W IS ALSO ENHANCING THIS ACTIVITY. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS UNDER A WEAK RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1010 MB SURFACE HIGH 28N94W PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS UP TO 15 KT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 17N78W DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND WRN CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N68W DOMINATING THE ERN CARIBBEAN AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. MOIST DIFFLUENT FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N82W TO 16N84W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALSO SUPPORTING A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW OVER NRN COLUMBIA WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N BETWEEN 76W-80W. MOIST SLY FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 16N BETWEEN 74W-76W. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS ALSO SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 61W-64W. THIS ACTIVITY IS PROBABLY BEING ENHANCED BY THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ELY TRADE WINDS OF UP TO 25 KT COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN BRINGING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MOIST WLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 28N70W AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN UNITED STATES ARE SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE WRN /CENTRAL ATLC N OF 29N BETWEEN 47W-79W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC E OF 47W. ON THE SURFACE...THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF SURFACE HIGHS...A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N36W AND A 1023 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N20W. A BROAD AREA OF AFRICAN DUST COVERS THE ERN TROPICAL ATLC S OF 25N TO THE ITCZ E OF 53W. $$ WALTON