000 AXNT20 KNHC 301657 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W S OF 15N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD MAINLY N OF 10N AND MAY BE MOVING CLOSER TO 20-25 KT. ANY CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE LAGS THE MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON THE TPW PRODUCT AND IS LOSING ITS LOW CLOUD SIGNATURE AS IT MOVES OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 5N-8N AND AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN THE WAVE AXIS AND 59W ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W/91W S OF 21N MOVING W 15-20 KT. IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MOVING INTO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION IN THE ATLC BASIN. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 9N23W 5N40W 6N51W 7N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 10W-15W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 7N28W 4N40W TO 6N47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE N GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC JUST N OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA ACROSS PANAMA CITY FLORIDA...THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF LOUISIANA THEN NW OVER E TEXAS NEAR HOUSTON. THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE FRONT E OF 87W...WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 87W-91W...AND WITHIN 45 NM S OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 91W-95W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF UPPER LEVELS ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ AND THE AXIS EXTENDING NE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BETWEEN FORT MYERS AND TAMPA PROVIDING THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO MAINTAIN THE SHOWER/ THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DESCRIBED ABOVE AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 24N E OF 93W. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL THIS AFTERNOON AS A BROAD UPPER LOW DOMINATES THE AREA CENTERED NEAR 17N75W WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH AMERICA OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N BETWEEN 77W-83W. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN USHERING IN SMALL ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 71W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N78W TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT JUST N OF JACKSONVILLE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS THAT CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC FROM NEAR MELBOURNE FLORIDA TO BEYOND BERMUDA PROVING UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO ENHANCE SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR ST. AUGUSTINE ALONG 31N76W TO 33N72W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N W OF 73W TO ACROSS FLORIDA. THE SAME UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES E PROVIDING UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 28N BETWEEN 55W-70W. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER A SURFACE RIDGE FROM A 1022 MB HIGH BETWEEN THE CANARY AND MADEIRA ISLANDS THROUGH A SECOND 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 27N34W AND A WEAKNESS ALONG 48W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N-28W BUT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. A BROAD AREA OF AFRICAN DUST COVERS THE E TROPICAL ATLC S OF 26N TO THE ITCZ E OF 50W. $$ WALLACE