000
AXNT20 KNHC 292358
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W TO THE SOUTH
OF 15N MOVING WEST 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W TO THE SOUTH
OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 48W AND 53W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W TO THE SOUTH 
OF 18N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN
PART OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. IT IS EASILY 
POSSIBLE THAT THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDING ENERGY AND 
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY TO THE DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION 
THAT COVERS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF NICARAGUA
INTO THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF HONDURAS.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM AFRICA NEAR 10N14W TO 9N21W TO 6N30W TO 6N48W. ONE CELL
OF SHOWERS IS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 6N11W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH 
AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN 
NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO...ABOUT 150 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE TEXAS 
BIG BEND. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDER-
STORMS COVER MEXICO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC NORTHWARD. THIS 
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN A SITUATION OF MIDDLE TO UPPER 
LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW THAT MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC 
OCEAN ACROSS TOWARD THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MEXICO TOWARD THE
AREA OF THE CYCLONIC CENTER DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
COVERS PARTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN 
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA
INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES 
THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BEYOND 
CENTRAL LOUISIANA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE
NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 80W AT FLORIDA TO WESTERN LOUISIANA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
JUST OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF HAITI. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THIS CYCLONIC CENTER TO NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA JUST TO THE EAST 
OF THE GULF OF URABA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA 
FROM THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF NICARAGUA INTO THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN 
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND FROM THE NORTHWESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
INTO NORTHERN HAITI. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA TO THE EAST OF 76W. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS ALONG 
THE LINE FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO 28N70W TO 29N58W BEYOND 32N56W.
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N40W TO
A 28N46W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 22N52W.

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