000 AXNT20 KNHC 290018 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2009 CORRECTION IN ORDER TO UPDATE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION... THE ITCZ SECTION...AND TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 40W TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N42W 9N44W 2N46W MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP LAYER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN 79W AND 80W FROM 12N TO THE COAST OF PANAMA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS WAVE MAY BE CONTRIBUTING SOME INSTABILITY TO THE ATMOSPHERE IN ORDER TO CAUSE THE DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. ...THE ITCZ... FROM AFRICA NEAR 9N13W TO 4N27W 7N43W...INTO SURINAME AND GUYANA NEAR 6N56W AND 5N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 3N TO 11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 34W...TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 33W AND 50W...AND FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 49W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...ABOUT 100 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF REYNOSA MEXICO/MCALLEN TEXAS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER MEXICO FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC NORTHWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 26N85W TO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 22N90W TO 20N92W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THIS AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 25N BETWEEN 83W AND 90W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA FROM GEORGIA IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 65W... AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 60W... BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 27N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 17N TO 28N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W. THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA REACHES 28N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 62W AND 70W. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS CENTRAL AMERICA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...SOUTHERN HONDURAS...SOUTHWESTERN NICARAGUA...AND FROM COSTA RICA INTO PANAMA IN THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE COMBINED WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE COMPARATIVELY MORE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF THOSE COUNTRIES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA AND NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...AND FROM PANAMA TO 12N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W...AT THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH...AND IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. THE SOUTHERNMOST EXTENT OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT ORIGINATES IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 27N51W REACHES 15N65W IN THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 27N51W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 21N52W TO 17N58W...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N65W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 47W AND 52W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N21W TO 22N26W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 33N15W TO 30N18W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 30N18W TO 26N25W TO 24N35W. $$ MT