000 AXNT20 KNHC 270000 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN IS FROM 10N-21N ALONG 84W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. ACCOMPANYING THE TROPICAL WAVE IS A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 17.5N. A LARGE CLUSTER OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FOUND E OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 81W-85W AND IS IN BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. STRONG MOIST SLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER JAMAICA IS CONTINUING TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE AND SURFACE LOW. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THIS AREA OF DISORGANIZED WEATHER WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE VICINITY OF THIS SYSTEM OVER HONDURAS AND IN THE NW CARIBBEAN... SPREADING NWD OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MUCH OF WRN AND CENTRAL CUBA. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 14N36W TO 5N38W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND MAINLY CONFLUENT SURFACE FLOW ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS NEAR 6N. THE WAVE IS VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION WITH ONLY CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 2N-11N E OF THE WAVE AXIS TO 10W. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 20N67W ACROSS WRN PUERTO RICO TO CURACAO AND INLAND ACROSS WRN VENEZUELA TO NEAR 8N69W MOVING W NEAR 12 KT. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MOISTURE MAXIMUM BASED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WHILE NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEPICTED SURROUNDING THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND INTO THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 65W-70W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 7N35W 6N39W AND INTO NRN SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 12W-19W. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR 31N91W AND A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED OVER THE N/CENTRAL GULF ALONG 29N87W 27N89W 27N93W ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST AND N/CENTRAL GULF N OF 26N BETWEEN 85W-93W. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER N TEXAS IS PROVIDING MAINLY NE FLOW ALOFT AND PROVIDING AN OVERALL DRY AND RELATIVELY STABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE GULF NW OF A LINE FROM THE BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA TO THE WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE. ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SE GULF...INCLUDING NRN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE SE GULF TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 20N92W. MOIST AND UNSTABLE SLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS SE OF A LINE FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO 25N86W AND TO THE NW TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W. WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN...POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST AS THE WAVE AND SURFACE LOW TRACK INTO THE SRN GULF BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ABOVE OF EACH WAVE PROVIDING A VERY DIFFERENT OUTCOME IN THE WEATHER EXPERIENCED AT THE SURFACE. ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN...NLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES PROVIDING A VERY DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE E OF 70W. HOWEVER... WITH THE LOW-LEVEL TROPICAL WAVE ALONG APPROXIMATELY 68W... ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED N OF 15N BETWEEN 65W-70W... INCLUDING THE MONA PASSAGE. E OF THE WAVE AXIS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS NOTED MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO NEAR 66W. ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN W OF 70W...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER JAMAICA IS PROVIDING AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AND SURFACE LOW NEAR 17.5N84W. THIS PATTERN IS CONTINUING TO ENHANCE THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 81W-85W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDS ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD OF THE CONUS AND DIPS INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC TO 25N. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 26N71W TO 32N62W AND CONTINUES N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE LOCATED E OF THE UPPER TROUGHING IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 59W-69W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL PLUME OF MOISTURE EXTENDS FARTHER SW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...SRN FLORIDA AND CUBA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 20N-29N BETWEEN 74W-81W. FARTHER TO THE E...A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N49W IS BRINGING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE FAR PORTIONS OF THE NE ATLC WITH THE UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDING W-SW ALONG 26N40W TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 21N53W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT CLIPS THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N28W 30N32W TO 32N37W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 31N28W TO 27N40W. ENHANCED CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS SURROUND THE SURFACE FRONT AND TROUGH N OF 26N BETWEEN 20W-40W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 15N35W DOMINATES THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 22N. $$ HUFFMAN