000 AXNT20 KNHC 261101 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34N/35W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 15 KT. ANY NEARBY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 63W AND 68W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THOSE SHOWERS REALLY ARE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN VENEZUELA FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 66W AND 67W...AND FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 68W AND 69W...POSSIBLY RELATED TO THIS TROPICAL WAVE. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W TO THE SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WEST 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 12N TO 19N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... FROM AFRICA NEAR 11N15W TO 8N35W 7N48W INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 9N62W. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 11W AND 16W...FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 22W AND 40W...FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W...AND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 53W AND 57W. ...DISCUSSION... IN INTERIOR MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... WHAT USED TO BE A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INTERIOR MEXICO TROUGH FROM 26N104W TO 23N98W APPEARS TO HAVE DISSIPATED. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE U.S.A. BETWEEN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND MEXICO ALONG 105W/106W. ANY PART OF THAT SAME EARLIER TROUGH MAY BE ALONG THE FRINGES OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. IT IS NOT AS EASY TO PICK OUT THIS FEATURE ANY MORE AS IT WAS IN THE PAST. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE FLORIDA TO 25N87W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N90W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AND ALONG THE TROUGH FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA AND 87W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS...FROM 12N TO 19N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND IN AN AREA OF DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF 65W...THANKS TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN CUT-OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 20N52W. SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO THE EAST OF 65W...DEPENDING ON THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF TIME THAT THE TROUGH SPENDS SPANNING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE DEEP LAYER WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING THE SURFACE TROUGH FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS WEAKENED COMPARATIVELY AND IT IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. THE BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN OVERRUN WITH A RIDGE FROM A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 34N49W. A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY IS CAUGHT UP IN THE RIDGE...PASSING THROUGH BERMUDA TO 29N70W TO THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W. A TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 29N70W TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...ULTIMATELY CONNECTING WITH THE TROUGH THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT SHOWERS SOMEWHERE ALONG THIS TROUGH UNTIL IT FINALLY DISSIPATES AND/OR MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. A CUT-OFF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 20N52W. THIS FEATURE HAS PERSISTED IN THE SAME AREA DURING THE LAST THREE DAYS OR SO. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N TO 26N BETWEEN 43W AND 61W. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS NOW ARE FROM 21N TO 22N BETWEEN 52W AND 61W. A SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 35N27W TO 28N34W. $$ MT