000 AXNT20 KNHC 252352 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N32W TO 4N34W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. REMAINING LARGELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...THIS WAVE IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SURROUNDING THE WAVE BETWEEN 31W-38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 31W-35W. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 20N60W ACROSS GUADELOUPE TO 11N63W AND INLAND OVER ERN VENEZUELA TO 3N63W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THIS WAVE EXHIBITS AN INVERTED-V PATTERN SIGNATURE IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 56W-62W. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 21N74W 15N76W TO 7N77W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. AS THIS WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE BENEATH MOIST AND UNSTABLE SLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 78W-87W ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 7N32W 7N36W 6N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 13W-18W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF A LINE FROM 3N20W TO 7N24W TO 7N32W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 51W-57W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MEXICO W OF 97W. ALSO...ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC AND SE GULF IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 80W-86W INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. ELSEWHERE...A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SE LOUISIANA WITH ONE SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED WWD ALONG THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST TO 30N94W AND INLAND OVER ERN TEXAS. THE OTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE LOW CENTER INTO THE ERN GULF NEAR 26N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL GULF IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW AND SURFACE TROUGHS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 89W-93W. ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE...SUBSIDENCE AND DEEP LAYER DRY AIR ARE RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. THIS SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPORTING A 1013 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N90W. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WRN CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE IS COMBINING WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE SW AND WRN CARIBBEAN TO RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 18N W OF 78W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS MOIST SLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES AND AS THE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MOVE WWD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CARIBBEAN...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY E OF 73W AND IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE SE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND WINDWARD ISLANDS. ELY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC AND SE GULF OF MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N67W EXTENDING ALONG 30N70W TO THE SE FLORIDA COAST NEAR FORT PIERCE. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH...AS WELL AS ATMOSPHERIC LIFT IN MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT...ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 200 NM S OF THE SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN 63W-78W EXTENDING OVER THE NW BAHAMAS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. FARTHER TO THE E...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC...WHERE SUBSIDENCE IS OCCURRING NEAR A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ON A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N59W AND A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 28N30W. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF 24N BETWEEN 20W-35W EXTENDS SW TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 20N51W AND SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH BRIDGING THE TWO SURFACE HIGH CENTERS EXTENDING ALONG 31N35W TO 25N47W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM W AFRICA NEAR 17N13W ALONG 13N22W TO 7N44W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AND THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG APPROXIMATELY 33W IN THE ERN ATLC. $$ HUFFMAN