000
AXNT20 KNHC 251100
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS 14N29W 8N31W 4N32W...BASED ON SURFACE 
OBSERVATIONS...QUIKSCAT DATA...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY.
NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITH THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N56W 10N57W TO 2N58W MOVING WEST
15 KT. SHOWERS ARE FROM 10 TO 11N BETWEEN 54W AND 55W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM THE BORDER OF HAITI AND 
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 18N72W TO 15N73W TO 9N74W IN 
NORTHERN COLOMBIA. A CELL OF STRONG SHOWERS IS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS OF 7N73.5W IN COLOMBIA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALSO ARE IN THE WATERS FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W...
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM AFRICA NEAR 9N13W TO 7N30W 5N40W 7N54W. STRONG SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE OCEAN FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 13W AND 
20W...AND FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 49W AND 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 
32W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

IN INTERIOR MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR 28N108W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN 
THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN THE COAST AND 100W.
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING TO THE SOUTH OF 20N IN MEXICO 
BETWEEN THE BORDER WITH GUATEMALA AND 100W. THE TROUGH ON WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES THROUGH 33N72W...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA 
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N86W TO 23N89W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE LINE FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 24N81W TO 26N86W TO
28N89W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS JUST TO THE 
NORTH OF THE GULF OF URABA...AND IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA...TO THE 
WEST OF THE 18N72W 9N74W TROPICAL WAVE. THE MIDDLE LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WAS IN NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA 
ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED TO NORTH CENTRAL HONDURAS NEAR 
16N86W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF 
NICARAGUA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN
77W AND 84W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF NICARAGUA. A MIDDLE 
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN 
HAITI NEAR 17N72W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 
15N74W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 75W AND THE COAST OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA...UNDER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH SUPPORTS THE SURFACE 
TROUGH THAT IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 33N71W TO 30N74W TO THE 
FLORIDA COAST NEAR 27N80W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 28N64W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM
BERMUDA TO 28N70W TO 26N75W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 
24N82W. THE TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES THROUGH 
33N72W...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO NEAR 25N86W TO 23N89W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH A 30N24W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
TO A SMALLER CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 22N31W TO A COMPARATIVELY
MUCH BIGGER CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 21N50W TO 13N56W. THE 21N50W 
CYCLONIC CENTER HAS BEEN IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR AT LEAST THE 
LAST THREE DAYS OR SO.

$$
MT