000 AXNT20 KNHC 242354 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN INVERTED-V CLOUD PATTERN IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 48W-57W. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 20N68W 15N70W 9N71W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS WITH CYCLONIC CURVATURE NOTED IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD FIELD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS WAVE IS BEING AMPLIFIED NWD AS IT ENCOUNTERS SELY FLOW ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN DRIVEN BY A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC. STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE BENEATH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WHICH IS INHIBITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 19N68W TO 16N72W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF FAR ERN HISPANIOLA. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 10N20W 6N33W 7N50W 8N55W AND INTO GUYANA NEAR 7N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED INLAND ACROSS W AFRICA AND NEARBY COASTAL WATERS FROM 4N-13N BETWEEN 6W-14W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 12N19W TO 6N32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW OVER THE FAR W GULF NEAR 24N98W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER INTERIOR AND COASTAL NE MEXICO FROM 22N-26N W OF 97W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER NRN MEXICO. ALSO...A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC...FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SE GULF IS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE E GULF. THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA FROM WEST PALM BEACH TO PORT CHARLOTTE AND INTO THE NE GULF ALONG 28N85W TO A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR BILOXI MISSISSIPPI. LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH...ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN NLY FLOW ALOFT... ARE SUPPORTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 80W-90W. ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ACROSS SRN LOUISIANA AND REMAIN N OF 29N IN THE N/CENTRAL GULF WATERS. BETWEEN THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS...SUBSIDENCE AND DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WRN AND FAR NERN GULF... RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. THIS SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPORTING A 1013 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N88W. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE IS COMBINING WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN TO RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF A LINE FROM 12N73W TO 15N84W... INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN...SUBSIDENCE IN NLY FLOW ALOFT AND OVERALL DEEP LAYER DRY AIR ARE RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WRN CARIBBEAN... EXPECT INCREASED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY W OF 70W AND AN INCREASE IN ELY TRADE WINDS BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC...FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ERN GULF OF MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 31N68W 27N74W ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS TO THE SE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR WEST PALM BEACH. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH...AS WELL AS ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...AND ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 24N BETWEEN 60W-75W AND FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 75W-81W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE NRN COAST OF CUBA...THE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. FARTHER TO THE E...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC...WHERE SUBSIDENCE IS OCCURRING NEAR A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 35N49W. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS ALONG 13N16W 7N34W TO 9N44W AND IS RESULTING IN THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. $$ HUFFMAN