000 AXNT20 KNHC 241104 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE ANALYSIS ALONG 47W/48W TO THE SOUTH OF 11N. THIS WAVE WAS DETECTED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY FROM 23/1800 UTC...AND CONFIRMED BY STUDYING HOVMOLLER DATA FROM THE LAST 2 TO 3 DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 47W AND 50W MAY BE RELATED TO THIS WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 65W/66W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. THIS WAVE RUNS FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO CENTRAL COASTAL VENEZUELA. THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS IN VENEZUELA SIX HOURS AGO HAS DISSIPATED WITH TIME. IT WILL NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE FOR THIS TO RE-DEVELOP DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WINDS MOVE ON TOP OF THE AREA THROUGH WHICH THIS WAVE IS MOVING. ...THE ITCZ... FROM AFRICA NEAR 12N16W TO 7N30W 4N37W TO 4N46W...ACROSS NORTHERN FRENCH GUIANA INTO NORTHERN GUIANA NEAR 6N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 16W AND 18W...FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 23W AND 27W...AND FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM WEAKENING BUT STILL LINGERING PRECIPITATION IS FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 48W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 10N EAST OF 40W. ...DISCUSSION... IN INTERIOR MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR 26N103W. WEAKENING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION AND REMNANT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COVER MEXICO FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 101W AND 107W. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 24N98W JUST OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 25N97.5W ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF MEXICO. OTHER CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOW CENTER COVER THE AREA FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 90W AND THE MEXICO COAST. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS BEEN IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. CYCLONIC FLOW CARRIES OVER FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...OVER LAND...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW FROM LOUISIANA EASTWARD ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION HAVE MOVED SOUTHWARD DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 28N86W TO THE FLORIDA KEYS NEAR 25N81W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE EARLIER PRECIPITATION WITH THE 65W/66W TROPICAL WAVE HAS DISSIPATED IN VENEZUELA. A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA NEAR 14N86W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS CYCLONIC CENTER TO 16N82W. ALL THE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS OVER LAND SIX HOURS AGO WITH THIS CYCLONIC CENTER HAS DISSIPATED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 77W AND 83W...IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH SUPPORTS THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 31N69W TO 26N76W BEYOND 31N85W IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W...AND IN PARTS OF THE BAHAMAS AND COASTAL SOUTH FLORIDA FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W...AND FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 62W AND 64W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N49W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 43W AND 57W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH A 33N27W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 26N30W TO 18N30W. $$ MT