000 AXNT20 KNHC 230546 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N57W 10N60W TO THE GUYANA/VENEZUELA BORDER AT THE COAST...TO 3N61W IN BRAZIL... MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES ON TOP OF THE AREA THROUGH WHICH THIS WAVE IS MOVING. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 9N TO 17N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W. ...THE ITCZ... FROM AFRICA NEAR 11N15W TO 6N30W TO 5N40W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AND SOUTHERN FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 3N54W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 17W AND 48W. ...DISCUSSION... IN INTERIOR MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ONE CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 26N102W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 23N97W INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 19N95W. SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND FROM 19N TO 21N ALONG THE MEXICO COAST. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO ELSEWHERE...TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT REACHES THE BAHAMAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALSO FROM WESTERN GUATEMALA TO MEXICO FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 90W AND 92W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 13N81W A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 22N67W ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 15N72W IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE 13N81W CENTER WAS PART OF THE TROUGH THAT COVERED THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AS LATE AS 22/1000 UTC. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MOVING FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ACROSS THE BAHAMAS BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC FROM THE BAHAMAS TO CUBA AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW IS RELATED TO THE CURRENT DEEP LAYER TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. IT APPEARS THAT A DEFORMATION AXIS IS ALONG THE LINE FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALONG 70W TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM SOUTH AMERICA NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 70W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH SUPPORTS THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT NOW PASSES THROUGH A 1003 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N69W TO 28N77W TO THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SAME LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 27N73W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE BAHAMAS AND IN THE FLORIDA OFFSHORE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N TO 24N BETWEEN 73W AND 74W...TO THE NORTH OF 21N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N49W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N TO 31N BETWEEN 43W AND 60W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N30W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 25N33W TO 18N35W. $$ MT