000
AXNT20 KNHC 221045
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N52W 8N55W INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL SURINAME NEAR 2N56W...MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 
9N TO 11N BETWEEN 54W AND 56W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM AFRICA NEAR 11N15W TO 8N25W TO 3N40W...INTO NORTHEASTERN 
BRAZIL AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 4N53W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 29W AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE FROM 3N TO 9N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 23W. SHOWERS
THAT MOST PROBABLY ARE NOT RELATED TO THE ITCZ ARE FROM 8N
TO 11N BETWEEN 46W AND 48W.

...DISCUSSION...

IN INTERIOR MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ONE CYCLONIC 
CENTER NEAR 26N103W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 21N99W TO 
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 18N97W.
CLUSTERS OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN AREAS OF 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE 
AREA...AND IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A COMPLETELY 
INDEPENDENT MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER IS NEAR 24N92W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS THAT WERE WITHIN
120 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS CYCLONIC CENTER HAVE BEEN 
DISSIPATING WITH TIME. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO ELSEWHERE...TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW 
WITH A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS APPROACHING FLORIDA AND THE 
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM AREAS TO THE NORTH OF 30N.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC 
OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 23N52W...ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN ISLANDS...ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE GUADELOUPE 
PASSAGE TO POSSIBLY THE ANEGADA PASSAGE...TO 17N66W INTO THE 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 13N72W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND 
FLOW MOVES FROM SOUTH AMERICA NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO MOVES FROM THE 
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN 
CORNER OF THE AREA...REACHING AS FAR AS COSTA RICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD 
FRONT THAT NOW IS ALONG 30N/31N. THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING 
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA STEADILY MORE AND MORE WITH TIME. 
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 29N77W...ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO A POSITION THAT IS IN BETWEEN ANDROS 
ISLAND AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF FLORIDA. STRONG SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN ONE CELL THAT IS FROM 28N TO 30N
BETWEEN 70W AND 72W...AND IN A SECOND AREA FROM 26N TO 29N
BETWEEN 75W AND 80W...MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AT
THIS TIME. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 31N31W TO 26N33W TO 23N34W
TO 16N35W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 29N TO 33N BETWEEN 
30W AND 35W. MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 22W 
AND 27W. A 1020 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS
FORMED NEAR 31N36W.

$$
MT