000
AXNT20 KNHC 191739
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH MEXICO...TO THE SOUTH OF 19N
ALONG 99W...MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION IN MEXICO APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO THIS WAVE.
AREAS OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC 
OCEAN AND MAY BE RELATED TO THIS WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W TO THE SOUTH OF 
8N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 19/1300 UTC SHOWS
THAT THIS POSITION IS PRETTY GOOD. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS 
ALREADY EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM AFRICA NEAR 8N11W TO 6N20W TO 5N30W 5N36W TO 3N40W 4N46W...
PASSING INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 5W 
AND 30W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 8N BETWEEN 30W AND 54W...INCLUDING
IN BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS
THE AREA. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER HAS MOVED FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO 24 HOURS AGO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. DRY AIR
IN SUBSIDENCE IS NEARLY EVERYWHERE AROUND THIS CYCLONIC CENTER...
EXCEPT FOR THE AREA FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 84W AND 90W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN AN AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW...TO THE SOUTH OF 21N IN THE 
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC 
OCEAN 24N65W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO HISPANIOLA TO THE 
SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR THE COLOMBIA COAST NEAR 12N74W.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST 
OF 76W ARE IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW THAT IS 
ADDING TO THE DEVELOPMENT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE 
CURRENT COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N49W TO 30N57W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 30N57W TO BERMUDA. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 29N ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
BETWEEN 43W AND 75W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM 
THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 70W...INTO THE 
ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 70W. IT 
CONTINUES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENT FLOW...FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 74W AND 80W. A MIDDLE 
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N65W. 
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS CYCLONIC CENTER TO HISPANIOLA TO THE 
SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR THE COLOMBIA COAST NEAR 12N74W.
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NEAR 
34N21W. THE CORRESPONDING 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 
32N19W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 33N TO 34N BETWEEN 19W AND
21W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 34N21W CYCLONIC CENTER
TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 25N36W TO 19N40W.

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