000
AXNT20 KNHC 171805
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 93W FROM 19N SOUTHWARD...ACROSS THE 
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM MEXICO TO 20N BETWEEN 93W AND 95W
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM 15N TO 16N
BETWEEN 94W AND 95W.

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS REACHED LAND...FROM THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS...THROUGH EL SALVADOR INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 15 TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 18N88.5W
ALONG THE BORDER OF BELIZE AND THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO. MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DISSIPATING TO SOME DEGREE FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 84W AND 88W. 

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W TO THE SOUTH OF 7N 
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS BEING FOLLOWED ON THE BASIS
OF AN AREA OF CONCENTRATED MOISTURE ON THE MIMIC-TOTAL TPW FIELD. 
ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS ALREADY EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM AFRICA NEAR 9N13W TO 7N20W TO 6N30W TO 4N40W...PASSING THROUGH
50W AT THE EQUATOR INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S52W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ TO THE EAST OF 40W...WITH THE 
PRECIPITATION BECOMING COMPARATIVELY MUCH MORE ISOLATED
TO THE SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W...AND ISOLATED MODERATE
PRECIPIATION FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W.

...DISCUSSION...

ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE AREA.
 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THE AREA OF THE SOUTHERN 
BAHAMAS...EASTERN CUBA...AND HISPANIOLA INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
SEA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM THE WATERS ABOUT 
60 TO 90 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO THE EASTERN 
PART OF THAT COUNTRY...TO PUERTO RICO...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 
NEAR 22N65W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF 31N FROM BERMUDA WESTWARD
TO GEORGIA. THE FRONT IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT
OF THE TROUGH IS JUST TO THE AREA. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION 
ARE TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 55W. A WEAKENING MIDDLE LEVEL 
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 31N45W. 
A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N18W...JUST TO THE NORTH
OF THE CANARY ISLANDS...AND FORECAST TO STAY NEAR THE ISLANDS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

$$
MT