000 AXNT20 KNHC 170529 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W/86W S OF 19N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP MOISTURE MAXIMUM BASED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 85W-89W. THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 7N24W 5N34W 2N43W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR ALONG 52W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER W AFRICA NEAR SIERRA LEONE FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 10W-13W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 14W-18W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 26W-40W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 1N BETWEEN 37W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE S FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 25N81W TO 29N82W N TO A SURFACE LOW OVER GEORGIA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER GEORGIA ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NE FLORIDA N OF 30N E OF 82W AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF S/CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM 25N-29N E OF 82W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE S GULF. THIS SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N89W TO S GUATEMALA NEAR 16N91W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N92W ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 89W-93W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND GUATEMALA. THE SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE W ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER TODAY. ELSEWHERE...A STATIONARY 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH REMAINS NEAR 28N88W BRINGING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH IS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE GULF...WITH SE TO S WINDS OF 15-20 KT OCCURRING IN THE NW GULF W OF 95W. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE FAR W CARIBBEAN...SEE ABOVE. THE WAVE ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N92W ARE SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 83W N OF 17N. THE CENTRAL ATLC IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. NLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 15N73W IS LIMITING THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS N OF 16N. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM 25N81W TO 29N82W N TO A SURFACE LOW OVER GEORGIA IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NE AND CENTRAL/S FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS N OF 30N W OF 80W AND FROM 26N-29N W OF 79W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER GEORGIA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS S OF 19N. A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS IN THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE ATLC NEAR 31N17W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 16W-18W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 34N35W BRINGING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH NEAR 12N40W TO 28N33W. EXPECT A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE STALL OVER THE NW WATERS LATER TODAY AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THU. $$ WALTON