000 AXNT20 KNHC 161755 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ALONG 82W/83W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA... OVER WATER FROM 14N IN NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BETWEEN 82W AND 88W IN THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS INTO EASTERN EL SALVADOR. ...THE ITCZ... FROM AFRICA NEAR 10N14W TO 9N20W TO 6N30W TO 5N40W INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 13W AND 19W...FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 27W AND 32W...FROM 1S TO 3N BETWEEN 41W AND 43W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 47W AND 51W...AND FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 51W AND 53W. ...DISCUSSION... ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N100W IN BETWEEN QUERETARO AND THE MEXICO CITY. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 23N TO THE WEST OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE NORTH OF 23N IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N87W IN AN AREA OF A WEAK AND FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...OVER WATER FROM 14N IN NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BETWEEN 82W AND 88W IN THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS INTO EASTERN EL SALVADOR. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 23N50W INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA INTO NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN 57W AND 66W...ENCOMPASSING THE ISLANDS FROM BARBADOS AND SAINT VINCENT TO PUERTO RICO. GUADELOUPE REPORTED A 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL OF 3.10 INCHES ENDING AT 16/1200 UTC. ABOUT TWO-THIRDS OF THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN FELL DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS OF THAT 24-HOUR TIME PERIOD. THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHERLY FLOW CROSSING THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA AND HISPANIOLA INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT SOME MEASURE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE AREA OF NORTHERLY FLOW AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-VENEZUELA TROUGH. THE CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA THAT IS CURRENT AS OF 16/1500 UTC REALLY DOES NOT SHOW THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. I JUST AM TRYING TO FIGURE OUT IF TWO TROUGHS EXIST OR IF JUST ONE BROAD TROUGH COVERS THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS THAT APPEAR TO BE DISSIPATING WITH TIME ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 78W AND 83W. A CELL OF PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 50 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN 70W AND 71W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ALSO HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF 32N FROM 70W TO GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. THE FRONT IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF 31N BETWEEN 60W AND 78W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N50W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 23N50W...PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN THIS TROUGH. A 1014 MB GALE CENTER IS NEAR 32N15W...ABOUT 120 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE CANARY ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS FEATURE IS NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED WITH RESPECT TO THE CYCLONIC CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP OF THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO NEAR 33N16W. CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDS AS FAR TO THE SOUTH AS 25N TO THE EAST OF 22W. $$ MT