000 AXNT20 KNHC 151748 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS ALONG 76W/77W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... FROM AFRICA NEAR 10N13W TO 8N20W TO 6N30W TO 3N40W INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2N52W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 125 NM OF THE COAST OF AFRICA BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 15W...FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 17W AND 19W...FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 22W AND 28W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 30W AND 52W IN BRAZIL. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM A SPOT ABOUT 90 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 17N97W... TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 14N95W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS/COASTAL WATERS FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 31N78W TO JUST TO THE EAST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N83W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...OVER SOUTHERN ANDROS ISLAND...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 28N78W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BROAD LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM A RIDGE ROUGHLY ALONG 90W. ONE INDIVIDUAL UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N84W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 84W IS SENDING UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 85W/86W FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO HONDURAS AND CENTRAL NICARAGUA NEAR 12N. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 83W AND 84W IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS OF EASTERN HONDURAS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE FROM 18.5N TO 20N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W INCLUDING PASSING ON TOP OF AND/OR NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 76W AND THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN U.S.A. INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AROUND A TROUGH THAT PASSES BEYOND 31N77W TO THE NORTHEAST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W TO 29N72W BEYOND 31N68W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N50W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 21N51W TO 13N57W TO GUYANA NEAR 5N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 57W AND 63W. THE PRECIPITATION COVERS MOSTLY THE AREAS AROUND AND/OR ON TOP OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS FROM BARBADOS TO GUADELOUPE. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP OF THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO NEAR 33N16W. CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDS AS FAR TO THE SOUTH AS 25N TO THE EAST OF 22W. $$ MT