000
AXNT20 KNHC 151046
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES WEST ALONG 73W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. 
WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS VIEWED ON 
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND DENSE CLOUD COVER MASKING THE 
SATELLITE SIGNATURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA FROM 72W-75W. 

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N8W 9N11W 6N30W 3N40W TO THE NE 
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2N52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 13W-20W AND WITHIN 150 NM ALONG 
THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 26W-50W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MOST OF THE GULF REMAINS TRANQUIL AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH A 1017 MB 
HIGH REMAINING IN THE E GULF NEAR 28N87W KEEPING WINDS LIGHT TO 
MODERATE ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER LOW IS SW OF THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE 
EXTENDING FROM 21N91W S AND INLAND GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N 
FROM 91W-97W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER W/CENTRAL 
MEXICO WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE ACROSS BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TO 
CENTRAL LOUISIANA. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIPS INTO THE FAR NE 
PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO BRINGING AN AREA OF THIN HIGH CLOUDS 
OVER THE SE GULF. A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS JUST OFF THE W COAST 
OF FLORIDA NEAR 26N82W. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF 
THROUGH MOST OF WEEK. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CENTERED INT HE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS JUST INLAND 
OVER THE YUCATAN ALONG 20N86W THROUGH HONDURAS GENERATING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 19N W OF 
84W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO 
DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR 17N80W DRAWING 
UPPER LEVEL MOSITURE OVER THE W/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND PROVIDING 
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG 
19N81W TO 12N82W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
MAINLY FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 78W-85W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
10N75W OVER COLOMBIA JUST N OF PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION 
NEAR THE COSTA RICA/PANAMA BORDER GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 80W-83W. THE REMAINDER OF 
THE AREA S OF 21N W OF 70W IS UNDER MODERATE/DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH 
EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND 
NARROWING EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS SANDWICHED 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NARROW RIDGE AXIS 
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN FROM PUERTO RICO TO 32N56W. THE 
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 64W-69W AND 
BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA BETWEEN 70W-78W. THE BROAD SURFACE 
RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 
1029 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION NEAR THE AZORES. A WEAK SURFACE 
TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 27N49W TO 32N47W. 
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING.  

$$
WALLACE