000
AXNT20 KNHC 150605
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES WEST ALONG 72W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. 
WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS VIEWED ON 
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND DENSE CLOUD COVER MASKING THE 
SATELLITE SIGNATURE. ANY CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER 
LEVEL FEATURES RATHER THAN THE WAVE ITSELF. 

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 7N23W 4N34W 2N41W TO 1N51W. 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 
10W-20W AND WITHIN 150 NM ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 28W-49W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MOST OF THE GULF REMAINS TRANQUIL AGAIN TONIGHT WITH A 1017 MB HIGH 
REMAINING IN THE E GULF NEAR 28N88W KEEPING WINDS LIGHT TO MODERATE 
ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER LOW IS ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE E BAY OF 
CAMPECHE S OF 20N FROM 91W-94W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS 
ANCHORED OVER W/CENTRAL MEXICO DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF 
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE ACROSS BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TO CENTRAL 
GEORGIA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF THROUGH MOST OF 
WEEK. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE FAR NW 
CARIBBEAN W OF 85W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS JUST INLAND 
ALONG 21N88W THROUGH BELIZE TO EL SALVADOR AND GENERATING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 19N W OF 
85W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO 
DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR 15N80W DRAWING 
UPPER LEVEL MOSITURE OVER THE W/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND PROVIDING 
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG 
21N81W TO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COSTA RICA/PANAMA BORDER 
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM 
12N-17N BETWEEN 77W-85W. A SECOND AREA OF SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS INLAND 
AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 72W-76W. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF 21N W OF 74W IS UNDER DENSE CLOUD COVER 
WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SEA BREEZE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JACKSONVILLE TO THE CENTRAL 
FLORIDA PENINSULA N OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE THAT HAS GENERATED SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN INLAND OVER FLORIDA MOVING OFF 
SHORE NEAR DAYTONA BEACH. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC CONTINUES 
TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND NARROWING EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO THE TURKS 
AND CAICOS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND 
THE NARROW RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN FROM PUERTO 
RICO TO 32N59W. THE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 64W-69W AND 
BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA BETWEEN 70W-79W. THE BROAD SURFACE 
RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 
1030 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION NEAR THE AZORES AND A 1023 MB HIGH 
CENTERED NEAR 30N53W. A WEAK REMNANT 1021 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN 
THE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 30N47W. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER 
FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. 

$$
WALLACE