000 AXNT20 KNHC 140526 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 66W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS HAD A LONG HISTORY AND HAS BEEN EASILY TRACKED ACROSS THE ATLC. WAVE HAS MOVED UNDER UPPER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE BUT IS STILL FAIRLY DISCERNIBLE AND REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS VIEWED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE. THE TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 84W S OF 21N AT 14/0000 UTC HAS BEEN DETERMINED...BASED ON HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM AND LONG RANGE SATELLITE LOOP INDICATING IT HAS BEEN IN THE GENERAL VICINITY FOR SEVERAL DAYS...COUPLED WITH THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATING THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND W CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNCHANGED. THEREFORE THIS FEATURE HAS MORE CHARACTERISTICS OF A SURFACE TROUGH. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 6N23W 2N36W 3N47W 4N52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE MOVING ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN N OF 3N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA E OF 2W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 14W-16W AND FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 41W-49W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 11W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1017 MB HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE E GULF NEAR 28N89W KEEPING WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN CROSSING OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE SE GULF. HOWEVER...THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER W/CENTRAL MEXICO DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN ABOUT MID WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LOW HAS BEEN CUT OFF FROM THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC AND IS NOW CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N86W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT 14/0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM 21N85W TO INLAND OVER HONDURAS/NICARAGUA NEAR 14N85W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOSITURE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 74W-83W FROM OVER CENTRAL AMERICA/NW SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS HAITI/CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 16N ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE HISPANIOLA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 29N69W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N78W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR MELBOURNE TO THE FLORIDA KEYS GENERATING SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA NEAR 22N74W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR FT. LAUDERDALE. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A NARROWING RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W/CENTRAL ATLC FROM PUERTO RICO TO 32N60W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 26N BETWEEN 63W-74W AND WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 26N67W TO BERMUDA. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION AND A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N55W. A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE AND LIES ALONG 31N WITH AN EQUALLY WEAK 1021 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N45W. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. $$ WALLACE