000 AXNT20 KNHC 132344 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... ONE CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. THE WAVE WAS SHOWING UP IN THE EARLIER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLOUDS AND ISOLATED/DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W. A SECOND CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS 82W/83W TO THE SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. THE WAVE WAS SHOWING UP IN THE EARLIER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A CYCLONIC CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAT IS NEAR 18N86W. IT IS NOT EASY TO DIFFERENTIATE THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONIC CENTER FROM THE PRECIPITATION THAT JUST ACCOMPANIES THIS TROPICAL WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... FROM AFRICA NEAR 11N15W TO 8N20W TO 3N30W TO 2N40W 4N50W INTO NORTHWESTERN FRENCH GUIANA. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W...FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 39W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... TO MEXICO/GUATEMALA/EL SALVADOR AND HONDURAS... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N86W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 23N IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LEADING INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO EL SALVADOR AND HONDURAS BETWEEN 82W AND 93W. THIS BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW HAS PERSISTED IN THIS AREA SINCE AT LEAST WEDNESDAY OF LAST WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN CUBA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE NORTH OF 18N...FROM NICARAGUA TO HONDURAS AND WESTWARD TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N TO THE WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA BETWEEN 80W AND 84W. INTERIOR MEXICO AND THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 100W...FROM ACAPULCO NORTHWARD BEYOND 32N IN TEXAS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO/ THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL VORTICITY AND BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...JUST TO THE EAST OF THE 82W/83W TROPICAL WAVE... FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE IN PANAMA JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE ITCZ. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 71W UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... ONE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 29N70W TO THE WATERS BETWEEN GREAT INAGUA AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. CLUSTERS OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHERN FLORIDA NOW...BEING PUSHED SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THAT STATE. A CLUSTER OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED ON TOP OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SHOWERS WERE ALONG THE NORTHERN HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF PUERTO RICO... AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. A SECOND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N55W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN A 125 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION COVER THE AREA FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN 47W AND 56W. A THIRD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 31N43W...MOVING SOUTHWARD WITH TIME. THIS CENTER IS PART OF A TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N29W...ALONG A DEFORMATION AXIS FROM 32N29W TO 31N36W 31N40W...TO THE 31N43W CYCLONIC CENTER. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EXIST FROM 26N TO 31N BETWEEN 38W AND 50W. $$ MT